Tempted?

  • Notice how much better you feel this evening?  Rallies do that.
  • We were up about 4% at one time today but, as expected, the day trippers took profits.
  • Most of the excitement was caused by rumbling from China that they will do whatever it takes to jump-start their economy.  That lit a fuse under commodities and commodity stocks.
  • Note that today’s rally did nothing for the bank stocks.  But should reports be true that mark to market may be rescinded these stocks will explode.  Supposedly we should know by early next week.  If you are not in them by any announcement you will have missed the move. So, place your bets or simply pass.
  • It is tempting to get in and I did that with a few things.  See below.  But I took half or quarter positions.  I remember December when money was easy.  Then January, then February and then March.  Don’t trust anyone over thirty, or sixty.
  • Friday is the jobs report so we have that to look forward to and am sure it won’t be good news.  Now that we are up 2%+ on the day, a jobs number over 700,000 is no longer baked-in.
  • Should you want to begin building a lazy portfolio using ETFs here is Vanguard’s site.  But while you are thinking about it be sure to check the performance charts.  Most are down about 20%+ this year.  Vanguard – Exchange-traded funds
  • Nevertheless, if you are tempted…. begin small, add as they go up, use half positions, maybe quarter positions. Then put stops under your average purchase price. Move the stops up when, as and if shares advance.  We are not out the woods yet. Far, far from it.
  • A great video from the 80’s that pretty much describes how you may be feeling. Squeeze – Tempted

Tonight is poker night and am taking no prisoners.  Make it a great, great evening!